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Day 28: Statistics — summaries, sampling uncertainty, inference

Compute honest descriptive statistics, quantify how much a sample can mislead, and separate a statistical claim from a toy observation. Retrieval and review are part of the 480-minute ledger.

Mathematics & Algorithmic Foundations 480 active minutes (8 hours focused study)
01 120 min

Descriptive statistics: mean, spread, and honest summaries

Assistance allowed only after prediction and observed evidence are recorded.

Prerequisites

Day 27 mathematics block; basic arithmetic and the prediction-review routine from Day 01.

Learning Objective

Compute and interpret mean, median, population/sample variance, and standard deviation on a small dataset, and explain why two datasets with the same mean can still differ.

Instructions

Statistics begins by compressing data into a few numbers. The mean locates the center; variance and standard deviation measure spread around it. Population variance divides the squared deviations by n; sample variance divides by n−1 (Bessel's correction) to avoid systematically underestimating spread. Predict every value by hand before checking with python3 — verification comes only after recorded predictions.

Practice & Prediction Log

For data = [2, 4, 4, 4, 5, 5, 7, 9]: compute the mean, median, sum of squared deviations, population variance, population standard deviation, and sample variance (divisor n−1). Then compute the mean and population standard deviation of data2 = [4, 5, 5, 5, 5, 5, 5, 6] and state what stays the same and what changes.

Independent Mastery Criterion

All hand-computed values match a Python check, and the explanation states that equal means do not imply equal distributions.

Authoritative Source Resources & Provenance

linking NIST public information (U.S. government site; NIST/SEMATECH co-production)

NIST/SEMATECH e-Handbook of Statistical Methods

Author: NIST (U.S. National Institute of Standards and Technology) and SEMATECH | Original Source Link ↗

Relevant Section / Range: Section 1.3.5 (Quantitative Techniques): measures of location and scale

Verified Version & Date: Current online edition (Verified: 2026-10-30)

Selection Rationale:

Primary engineering reference for descriptive statistics, exploratory data analysis, and uncertainty quantification with worked formulas.

Source Prerequisites:

High-school arithmetic; no calculus required for the descriptive sections.

Safe Fallback (Offline Resilience):

Every formula used in the lesson (mean, variance, standard error) is reproduced as original explanation; all exercises run fully offline.

Compared Candidate Sources & Selection Analysis (2)
OpenIntro Statistics (4th edition) ↗ compared_selected_for_day28 [CC BY-SA 3.0]

Undergraduate statistics text with a stronger narrative bridge from probability to inference; retained as the second linked source for inferential framing.

Seeing Theory (Brown University) ↗ compared_alternative [Free web resource (site copyright)]

Strong interactive visualizations of probability and sampling, but a browser-only interactive format is a weaker fit for an offline-capable 480-minute ledger.

linking CC BY-SA 3.0 share-alike

OpenIntro Statistics (4th edition)

Author: David Diez, Mine Cetinkaya-Rundel, Christopher Barr | Original Source Link ↗

Relevant Section / Range: Chapters 1-2: data basics and summary statistics

Verified Version & Date: 4th edition, 2019 (Verified: 2026-10-30)

Selection Rationale:

Rigorous open textbook treatment of sampling distributions, standard error, and the difference between an inferential claim and an anecdotal observation.

Source Prerequisites:

Introductory algebra; comfort reading mathematical notation.

Safe Fallback (Offline Resilience):

All required definitions and worked computations are given in the lesson itself; the book is a further-reading link.

Compared Candidate Sources & Selection Analysis (2)
NIST/SEMATECH e-Handbook of Statistical Methods ↗ compared_selected_for_day28 [NIST public information (U.S. government site; NIST/SEMATECH co-production)]

Engineering handbook strength for formulas, tables, and measurement practice; OpenIntro supplies the probability-to-inference narrative.

Stat 110: Introduction to Probability (Harvard, Prof. Joe Blitzstein) ↗ compared_rejected_for_day28 [All Rights Reserved (lectures and book)]

Strong probability course, but lectures and the print book are under full copyright and the syllabus spans a semester rather than a single study block.

02 120 min

Sampling uncertainty and the standard error

Independent Mastery Check (no AI assistance).

Prerequisites

Activity 28-01 complete; no AI assistance for this practice block.

Learning Objective

Quantify how much a sample statistic moves: the standard error of the mean σ/√n and of a proportion √(p(1−p)/n).

Instructions

In statistics, a sample mean is itself a random variable: repeat the sampling and it changes. Its standard deviation — the standard error — shrinks like 1/√n, so quadrupling n halves the error. Work the items by hand first, then verify with python3 -c one-liners using math.sqrt and math.comb.

Practice & Prediction Log

(a) With σ = 2, compute SE(mean) for n = 16 and n = 64. (b) For a fair-coin proportion, compute SE(p̂) = √(0.25/n) for n = 4, n = 100, n = 400. (c) Using math.comb, compute P(X ≥ 7 heads in 10 fair flips) = [C(10,7)+C(10,8)+C(10,9)+C(10,10)]/2¹⁰ and state whether 7 heads is strong evidence of a biased coin.

Independent Mastery Criterion

Both SE formulas applied correctly, the √n halving pattern stated, and the binomial tail computed and interpreted without assistance.

Authoritative Source Resources & Provenance

linking NIST public information (U.S. government site; NIST/SEMATECH co-production)

NIST/SEMATECH e-Handbook of Statistical Methods

Author: NIST (U.S. National Institute of Standards and Technology) and SEMATECH | Original Source Link ↗

Relevant Section / Range: Sections 1.3.5 and 1.3.6: variability, probability distributions

Verified Version & Date: Current online edition (Verified: 2026-10-30)

Selection Rationale:

Primary engineering reference for descriptive statistics, exploratory data analysis, and uncertainty quantification with worked formulas.

Source Prerequisites:

High-school arithmetic; no calculus required for the descriptive sections.

Safe Fallback (Offline Resilience):

Every formula used in the lesson (mean, variance, standard error) is reproduced as original explanation; all exercises run fully offline.

Compared Candidate Sources & Selection Analysis (2)
OpenIntro Statistics (4th edition) ↗ compared_selected_for_day28 [CC BY-SA 3.0]

Undergraduate statistics text with a stronger narrative bridge from probability to inference; retained as the second linked source for inferential framing.

Seeing Theory (Brown University) ↗ compared_alternative [Free web resource (site copyright)]

Strong interactive visualizations of probability and sampling, but a browser-only interactive format is a weaker fit for an offline-capable 480-minute ledger.

linking CC BY-SA 3.0 share-alike

OpenIntro Statistics (4th edition)

Author: David Diez, Mine Cetinkaya-Rundel, Christopher Barr | Original Source Link ↗

Relevant Section / Range: Chapter 4: foundations for inference; sampling distributions

Verified Version & Date: 4th edition, 2019 (Verified: 2026-10-30)

Selection Rationale:

Rigorous open textbook treatment of sampling distributions, standard error, and the difference between an inferential claim and an anecdotal observation.

Source Prerequisites:

Introductory algebra; comfort reading mathematical notation.

Safe Fallback (Offline Resilience):

All required definitions and worked computations are given in the lesson itself; the book is a further-reading link.

Compared Candidate Sources & Selection Analysis (2)
NIST/SEMATECH e-Handbook of Statistical Methods ↗ compared_selected_for_day28 [NIST public information (U.S. government site; NIST/SEMATECH co-production)]

Engineering handbook strength for formulas, tables, and measurement practice; OpenIntro supplies the probability-to-inference narrative.

Stat 110: Introduction to Probability (Harvard, Prof. Joe Blitzstein) ↗ compared_rejected_for_day28 [All Rights Reserved (lectures and book)]

Strong probability course, but lectures and the print book are under full copyright and the syllabus spans a semester rather than a single study block.

03 120 min

Inference versus a single observation

Assistance allowed only after prediction and observed evidence are recorded.

Prerequisites

Activity 28-02 complete; record your prediction before asking for help.

Learning Objective

Distinguish a statistical claim (a statement about a population with quantified uncertainty) from a toy observation (one small-sample result), and construct a misleading single-result counterexample.

Instructions

Inferential statistics attaches uncertainty to a claim: an estimate plus a standard error or interval. A single result is not a claim. Compare two toy models on 20 held-out examples: model A scores 16/20, model B 18/20. Before concluding B is better, ask how often equal-skill models would differ this much — each model's proportion has SE √(p(1−p)/20) ≈ 0.089 at p = .8 and ≈ 0.067 at p = .9 - in count units the SD is √(20p(1−p)) ≈ 1.79 at p = .8, 1.34 at .9 - so under a stated independence assumption a ±2-count gap is within ordinary fluctuation; the shared held-out set leaves A/B covariance unspecified, so this is not a paired or significance test.

Practice & Prediction Log

Construct the counterexample: two learners each flip a fair coin 10 times; A gets 4 heads, B gets 7. (a) What are p̂_A and p̂_B? (b) Using Activity 28-02's SE for n = 10 (≈0.16), would you claim B's coin is biased? (c) Write one sentence separating the observation from a statistical claim.

Independent Mastery Criterion

Learner produces both p̂ values, the SE comparison, and an explicit sentence distinguishing observation from claim; no fabricated significance is asserted.

Authoritative Source Resources & Provenance

linking NIST public information (U.S. government site; NIST/SEMATECH co-production)

NIST/SEMATECH e-Handbook of Statistical Methods

Author: NIST (U.S. National Institute of Standards and Technology) and SEMATECH | Original Source Link ↗

Relevant Section / Range: Section 1.3.5 (Quantitative Techniques): confidence in estimates

Verified Version & Date: Current online edition (Verified: 2026-10-30)

Selection Rationale:

Primary engineering reference for descriptive statistics, exploratory data analysis, and uncertainty quantification with worked formulas.

Source Prerequisites:

High-school arithmetic; no calculus required for the descriptive sections.

Safe Fallback (Offline Resilience):

Every formula used in the lesson (mean, variance, standard error) is reproduced as original explanation; all exercises run fully offline.

Compared Candidate Sources & Selection Analysis (2)
OpenIntro Statistics (4th edition) ↗ compared_selected_for_day28 [CC BY-SA 3.0]

Undergraduate statistics text with a stronger narrative bridge from probability to inference; retained as the second linked source for inferential framing.

Seeing Theory (Brown University) ↗ compared_alternative [Free web resource (site copyright)]

Strong interactive visualizations of probability and sampling, but a browser-only interactive format is a weaker fit for an offline-capable 480-minute ledger.

linking CC BY-SA 3.0 share-alike

OpenIntro Statistics (4th edition)

Author: David Diez, Mine Cetinkaya-Rundel, Christopher Barr | Original Source Link ↗

Relevant Section / Range: Chapter 5: inference for numerical data; point estimates and variability

Verified Version & Date: 4th edition, 2019 (Verified: 2026-10-30)

Selection Rationale:

Rigorous open textbook treatment of sampling distributions, standard error, and the difference between an inferential claim and an anecdotal observation.

Source Prerequisites:

Introductory algebra; comfort reading mathematical notation.

Safe Fallback (Offline Resilience):

All required definitions and worked computations are given in the lesson itself; the book is a further-reading link.

Compared Candidate Sources & Selection Analysis (2)
NIST/SEMATECH e-Handbook of Statistical Methods ↗ compared_selected_for_day28 [NIST public information (U.S. government site; NIST/SEMATECH co-production)]

Engineering handbook strength for formulas, tables, and measurement practice; OpenIntro supplies the probability-to-inference narrative.

Stat 110: Introduction to Probability (Harvard, Prof. Joe Blitzstein) ↗ compared_rejected_for_day28 [All Rights Reserved (lectures and book)]

Strong probability course, but lectures and the print book are under full copyright and the syllabus spans a semester rather than a single study block.

04 120 min

Retrieval and statistics review checkpoint

Independent Mastery Check (no AI assistance).

Prerequisites

Activities 28-01 through 28-03; use recovery link day-25 if earlier probability is shaky, and revisit Activities 28-01..03 for this day's statistics material.

Learning Objective

Close the block with closed-book retrieval: define the statistics vocabulary, compute a fresh summary unaided, and name what evidence turns an observation into a claim.

Instructions

Without notes or AI: define mean, median, variance (population vs sample), standard deviation, standard error, and baseline. Then compute the full summary of data3 = [1, 3, 3, 5]. Finally answer: which two quantities must accompany any generalization beyond a toy observation? Use recovery link day-25 for missed probability basics, revisit Activities 28-01 through 28-03 for statistics misses, and record a review plan.

Practice & Prediction Log

data3 = [1, 3, 3, 5]: compute mean, median, Σ(x−μ)², population variance and std, sample variance and std. Then solve for the n that makes SE(p̂) = 0.05 for a fair-coin proportion (solve √(0.25/n) = 0.05).

Independent Mastery Criterion

Unaided answers are numerically correct, all six vocabulary terms are defined from memory, and a concrete review plan names any term that was missed.

Authoritative Source Resources & Provenance

linking NIST public information (U.S. government site; NIST/SEMATECH co-production)

NIST/SEMATECH e-Handbook of Statistical Methods

Author: NIST (U.S. National Institute of Standards and Technology) and SEMATECH | Original Source Link ↗

Relevant Section / Range: Sections 1.3.5-1.3.6: summary formulas used across the day

Verified Version & Date: Current online edition (Verified: 2026-10-30)

Selection Rationale:

Primary engineering reference for descriptive statistics, exploratory data analysis, and uncertainty quantification with worked formulas.

Source Prerequisites:

High-school arithmetic; no calculus required for the descriptive sections.

Safe Fallback (Offline Resilience):

Every formula used in the lesson (mean, variance, standard error) is reproduced as original explanation; all exercises run fully offline.

Compared Candidate Sources & Selection Analysis (2)
OpenIntro Statistics (4th edition) ↗ compared_selected_for_day28 [CC BY-SA 3.0]

Undergraduate statistics text with a stronger narrative bridge from probability to inference; retained as the second linked source for inferential framing.

Seeing Theory (Brown University) ↗ compared_alternative [Free web resource (site copyright)]

Strong interactive visualizations of probability and sampling, but a browser-only interactive format is a weaker fit for an offline-capable 480-minute ledger.

linking CC BY-SA 3.0 share-alike

OpenIntro Statistics (4th edition)

Author: David Diez, Mine Cetinkaya-Rundel, Christopher Barr | Original Source Link ↗

Relevant Section / Range: Chapters 1-5 review: summaries through inference

Verified Version & Date: 4th edition, 2019 (Verified: 2026-10-30)

Selection Rationale:

Rigorous open textbook treatment of sampling distributions, standard error, and the difference between an inferential claim and an anecdotal observation.

Source Prerequisites:

Introductory algebra; comfort reading mathematical notation.

Safe Fallback (Offline Resilience):

All required definitions and worked computations are given in the lesson itself; the book is a further-reading link.

Compared Candidate Sources & Selection Analysis (2)
NIST/SEMATECH e-Handbook of Statistical Methods ↗ compared_selected_for_day28 [NIST public information (U.S. government site; NIST/SEMATECH co-production)]

Engineering handbook strength for formulas, tables, and measurement practice; OpenIntro supplies the probability-to-inference narrative.

Stat 110: Introduction to Probability (Harvard, Prof. Joe Blitzstein) ↗ compared_rejected_for_day28 [All Rights Reserved (lectures and book)]

Strong probability course, but lectures and the print book are under full copyright and the syllabus spans a semester rather than a single study block.